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February 2006

Well, When You Put It Like That...
Washington Post personal technology columnist Rob Pegoraro asks a question that really doesn't seem to need answering:

Two of the four DVD players shown in Best Buy's inserts advertised video "upconversion," which electronically amplifies DVD video to a high-definition resolution. In this case, a feature once reserved for the videophile fringe is becoming an easily accessible upgrade. And it's doing this just in time to compete head-on with HD DVD and Blu-Ray, the two competing, incompatible high-def disc formats.

That's going to give customers an interesting choice. Will they prefer a cheap, compatible player that makes all their existing DVDs look pretty darn close to high-definition, or will they pay much more for a player that might be abandoned by the market in a couple of years and will be wrapped up in layers of "digital rights management" usage controls, but can deliver the highest of high-definition video formats?
February 28th, 2006

Blu-ray - Sony's Saviour, Or Albatross?
CNET has followed up research from Merrill Lynch - which claimed that Sony's new PlayStation 3 will cost around $900 per unit to produce - and has reached a similar conclusion. The main factor - the Blu-ray drive will likely cost 10 to 15 times more than the drives currently used: $200 to $300, compared to just $20 at present. CNET asks if the PS3 is to become the albatross around Sony's neck.
February 27th, 2006

I'm Mad As Hell and I'm Not Going to Take It
Former Apple man Mike Evangelist writes about high-definition DVD at his blog:

This is important. I really want you to understand what’s going on with the video industry’s push towards HD. They are engineering a complete removal of the concept of fair use. They are setting up systems that will completely control how, when and where you can use content that you buy. Even worse, they can retroactively change the rules!

....Both HD-DVD and Blu-ray have embraced this draconian system, and the studios are salivating at the prospect of you never actually being able to own content again.

My reaction to this abomination is simple: no way in hell. I will not buy any product that uses this crap, and I hope you’ll join me in that boycott. Let these morons see the early adopters staying away in droves.

Please pass this on; post it on your blogs, ‘digg’ it; slashdot it; whatever it takes to stop this insidious plan.
February 25th, 2006

Now They Know - Toshiba Promotes HD DVD
Electronic News carries a lengthy report on Toshiba's 40-city campaign to promote its new HD DVD players, apparently still on schedule for a March 26th release.

“It builds upon the current DVD technology so your entire DVD collection you have at home can be played on the HD DVD player in the native resolution,” said Dan O’Donnell, a Toshiba product specialist, pointing out that Hollywood studios have committed to a twin disk format, with one holding HD DVD content and one holding standard DVD content.

....When O’Donnell was asked if he had heard any questions from consumers on HD DVD versus Blu-ray, he responded “not at all” and made a correlation between next-generation DVD and high-definition television. “Everyone knows they have a television at home and now they have an HD TV. Everyone has a DVD at home and now they know they will have an HD DVD player.”
February 24th, 2006

Sony - "Yes, PS3 Delay Is Possible"
Sony has apparently confirmed the speculation - the spring release of PlayStation 3 may be delayed if industry specifications for the Blu-ray format have not been standardized in time.
February 23rd, 2006

First HD DVD Players - March Release Still Likely
The reliable German news service Heise Online reports:

Manufacturers of drives for HD DVD and Blu-ray discs aim to stick to their launch date in March even though the AACS copy protection is incomplete (Advanced Access Content System). The first devices will have an interim license according to Blu-ray manufacturers. These licenses will allow the drives to be upgraded with the necessary AACS keys before the specification is finished.
And Sony says plans to release its PlayStation 3 this spring remain unchanged. A Merrill Lynch report that the PS3 release could be delayed until autumn sent Sony shares sliding yesterday.
February 21st, 2006

Toshiba Plans Major HD DVD Promotion
Apparently squashing speculation (scroll down) that the planned March release of its high-definition DVD players will be delayed, Toshiba is set to launch a massive promotional tour of 40 cities.
February 18th, 2006

Will My Computer Show High Def?
CNET has more bad news for consumers looking to be early adopters of high-def DVD. Copy protection issues mean that while a new disc in a new player connected to a new TV (all high-def) will probably work okay, a connection to your computer might not.

It's a lengthy but clear and well-written story that you can read here. The opening sentence sums it up:

When the first high-definition DVDs finally hit shelves this spring, a mad scramble may ensue--not for the discs themselves, but to figure out what computers and devices are actually able to play them in their full glory.
February 18th, 2006

Toshiba's HD DVD Players to Be Delayed?
Considerable comment - for example, here and here - on new delays in the Advanced Access Content System specifications - the security protocols - for high-definition DVD. It's possible this will force Toshiba to postpone the planned March launch of its HD-A1 and HD-XA1 players. Toshiba was to have been first off the block to bring a high-def DVD player to market.
February 16th, 2006

"Hardware Will Be Limited..."
Video Business presents an excellent run-down of what the consumer can expect in high-definition DVD. In essence:

- The first DVDs are set for release on March 28th, though speculation abounds of delays.

- It is likely that initially only high-def DVD hardware retailers will be allowed to sell the discs.

- Some retailers are hesitant to stock high-def titles at launch, preferring to wait and see how initial sales go. At least one regional grocer and one national movie/music chain are holding off on orders.

- Hardware will be limited for a while. Some stores may have only one or two units available for sale.

- Best Buy and Amazon.com will be among the first retailers carrying both hardware and discs.
February 15th, 2006

To "p" Or Not to "p" - That Is the Question with Three to Five Answers
Consumer Electronics Net carries a long interview with Mark Knox, adviser to the HD DVD Promotion Group. He makes many interesting observations - and it is a highly worthwhile report - but the crunch probably comes when he is asked about 1080i and 1080p.

CEN: In your view, how long do you think it's going to take to work out the standards of HDMI and DVI-D, to the point where all output will be 1080p, and all receivers will be able to receive it?

Knox: I think that it's going to be a long time before you can say any HDTV you buy will be able to accept 1080p and deliver it directly to the display engine.

CEN: How long? Can you give us a ballpark figure?

Knox: I think what will happen is, it will start from the top down. For example, last year, there were many TV vendors that were putting “p’s” on their cartons.

CEN: Yes, we saw that at CES last year, and even more this year, I noticed.

Knox: Yes. So an HDTV is saying, this is a 1080p TV. And it is a 1080p TV, because it takes a 1080i signal on one end and converts it inside the TV to 1080p, so that the resulting picture looks pretty darn good.

CEN: Does that mean that they can display true 1080p?

Knox: Now you get into even more difficulties, because exactly what did that process do? And there are three to five answers to that question. ...But I think the key issue is, for the first generation of HD DVD players, we made the painful decision of not allowing the player to put out 1080p, because that 1080p signal is considered "optional" in the current HDMI specification. So as a result, we have no guarantee that the receiving television can display it directly, and also there's no guarantee under the auspices of HDMI 1.1 that the 1080p signal from the player won't cause even greater difficulty for the receiving device depending on what model and make it is.
February 13th, 2006

Will Blu-Ray Kill Sony?
The eHomeUpdate website carries a lengthy analysis of Sony and its planned Playstation 3. In particular, the article notes that costs associated with adding Blu-ray technology could be absolutely huge. It's an excellent report, and worth reading in full. The bottom line:

While most analysts agree that HD-DVD will not likely win, some analysts are openly wondering whether Blu-Ray will as well. If it doesn't, Sony could be in serious trouble.
February 10th, 2006

$35 for a New DVD Title?
Sony has announced wholesale pricing for its high-definition DVD discs, due to be released from around summer. New-release discs will wholesale for $23.45 and catalog titles for $17.95. The company will not recommend a retail price, though it seems likely that some stores will charge as much as $35 for a new-release title.
February 9th, 2006

A Dicey Time to Be Buying
Ultimate AV reports on latest developments in high-definition DVD. It's very technical, and not for most. Essentially it wonders if manufacturers are rushing to bring out new players when several relevant technical issues are not yet resolved.

Bottom line:

These questions and many others will be answered in the coming months. All we know for now is that it's a dicey time to be buying a new disc player or a new surround sound processor or AVR, and formats themselves aren’t likely to be the only points of confusion facing consumers as HD DVD and Blu-ray come to market.
February 7th, 2006

High-Definition Quality Arrives Early
Uh-oh, high-definition DVD is meant to be vastly better than anything on offer right now. But such is the quality of Warner Home Video's new edition of "Ryan's Daughter" that the New York Times reviewer commented that watching it is "almost enough to make you believe that high-definition DVD has arrived ahead of schedule."
February 7th, 2006

TDK - Will It Really Ignore HD DVD?
Considerable comment - for example, here - on an interview with TDK executive Jean-Paul Eekhout, quoting him as saying that his company will produce only Blu-ray format media, believing that HD DVD has no future. Bit of a non-story, really. TDK will of course quickly launch HD DVD sales if that's where the market goes.
February 6th, 2006

Disappointment Number One
Digital Home Canada makes its forecasts for 2006. Disappointment #1 - high-definition DVD.

Key quote:

Many proponents argue that the boost in picture quality and growing adoption of HDTVs will ensure that HD DVD and Blu-ray are a success. The reality is the leap in picture quality from VHS to DVD was astounding and DVD provided so many extra features like chapter skip, menus and extra features that VHS didn't. Consumers had a compelling reason to upgrade.

The move up from DVD to high def DVD is significant but not astounding. On a 32" HDTV television, which should be the sweet spot for HDTV buyers, we don't feel the picture quality improvement is significant enough to warrant the high cost.

The result is we believe HD DVD and Blu-ray will become this year's technology disappointment. We don't think the formats will fail; however, we think that for at least several years, they will remain niche products restricted to videophiles who are willing to shell out the big bucks.

Disappointment #2?

Satellite radio.
February 3rd, 2006

Blu-Ray Discs - Prices to Fall to within 10% of Current DVD Prices
TDK is a major player in storage media trends, and the company's views are worth hearing. VNU Network features a brief interview with a company executive on TDK's intentions in high-definition DVD.

"Data storage is going to be key, and maybe jukebox systems. There's also an under-estimated market for video enthusiasts getting into high definition recording."

TDK already has 50GB Blu-ray discs in production and has built engineering samples of 100GB discs, although these are not expected to go into production until 2007.

Early prices for the media are high, however. [Corporate strategy director Jean-Paul] Eekhout estimated that 25GB recordable discs would cost around €25, and 50GB recordable discs will initially be around €25-€30 at launch in the spring.

But prices for Blu-ray media would drop to within 10 per cent of current DVD costs once TDK reached full production, according to Eekhout.
February 1st, 2006